Mid-Major Madness: All Posts by Benjamin Miraski

Inside the Numbers: Missouri State Has a Tempo Problem

2013-05-04T19:06:26Z

There is no Tempo Anonymous, but if there was, Missouri State would be on Step 1 of its 12-step recovery track. That is because the Bears had a definitive tempo issue during the 2012-13 season.

This is just the first of what will likely be several discoveries as we crunch through the numbers from the season that was. The Missouri Valley was the first stop on the Mid-Major Madness tour inside the data, and Missouri State gets to be the first poster child for what went wrong.

The Bears completed their second season under Paul Lusk as one of the 15 slowest teams in college basketball. Now that might not be an issue if your team can handle that kind of game. We see teams like Pittsburgh and Wisconsin excel at this every season by playing tough defense and winning with a strong inside presence run by smart point guards.

But Missouri State isn't that kind of team. They are small, even for the Missouri Valley, topping out with exactly one player over 6-7. And Anthony Downing was a good point guard, but all of the offense lived in the backcourt this season, with Marcus Marshall adding the rest of the firepower.

See, this isn't a team built to plod along. This is a team that was meant to play faster.

And the numbers bear this out, even if you just look back to the 2011-12 campaign. Two years ago, the Bears played slightly faster -- not average mind you, but closer to average than bottom 15. The team handled that much better, pulling together a balanced offense that gave them a fighting chance in the Valley.

Most of the value (as measured by HOOPWAR) was gone from that team this season, leaving a younger squad that no one expected to contend for much. But that doesn't mean they couldn't have been more effective. Downing gave them the perfect vehicle to use to turn up the tempo. After all, with one of the least experienced teams in the country, you are going to make mistakes. Turning up the tempo allows those mistakes to be smoothed over.

Missouri State didn't have the defensive efficiency to pull this slow speed off. They didn't score efficiently either. So why not take the chance to do something different. You don't even need a guard as good as Downing to do it. Look at what Florida Gulf Coast did with turnover-prone Brett Comer leading the charge.

It becomes even more clear how much value that Lusk left on the table when you delve into the HOOPWAR stats for the Bears this past season. As part of the calculation for HW30, we normalize every team to an average pace of play. That means that the Bears get a huge boost in terms of what they actually did on the floor (assuming they could have produced at the same rate in a faster offense).

Before adjusting, there were just four players giving positive value on the Bears: Downing, Marshall, Keith Pickens and seldom-used Ryan Carmichael.

After the adjustment, seven players -- six who got decent playing time, and Carmichael -- turned in positive value.

But it is also the size of the value that is important: a difference of almost 16 wins in value. That brings us to two conclusions. One, the Bears overachieved at their slow pace given the deficiencies on both offense and defense, and two, if they had pushed it a little more, this team could have flipped a number of games that went against them.

This may not have cured all ills. After all, this team was still undersized, and had some difficult foes on the schedule this season. Even if they had just turned in a middle of the road difference, maybe they could have grabbed three or four more wins and gotten close to a .500 team.

With that extra pace, what could have happened?

Well, possibly we would have seen what Anthony Downing was really worth for this team. As it was, he maybe was worth 4 wins to this team. But normalized, he turned in a 7.8 HW30 this season.

That isn't All-Conference honorable mention. That is first team quality.

He was the fourth most valuable player in the conference by the measure, behind Doug McDermott, Colt Ryan and Jackie Carmichael. That is a pretty good group to run in.

It is too bad that no one noticed given the Missouri State style of play.

Or what about Marcus Marshall, the Missouri Valley Freshman of the year, and one of the most valuable players returning in the conference next season. He scored a 4.5 HW30. That is the type of value from a first-year player that should be getting you seen on a national level, not just as the top frosh in the Valley.

Downing and Marshall probably deserved better this year, and it is the kind of thing that makes you scratch your head.

This coming season, Marshall and Pickens* will again lead a team that will be giving up a lot of size in the post. They will need to do something different to have a shot at competing with a strong Wichita State team and the climbing Northern Iowa and Indiana State.

The same methodology as this season won't work. The team just isn't built that way, and it can't keep leaving so much value unclaimed.

Someone might want to forward some of these numbers on to Lusk so that he can see for himself.

(Ed. Note: Pickens retired because of a recurring knee problem and will not return in 2013-4)

2013 NBA Draft: Looking at the Mid-Major Early Entries

2013-05-02T12:00:09Z

Testing the NBA Draft is a tricky game. There are 60 spots available for eager players, only 30 of which get their money guaranteed.

You almost have to be certain that you will get drafted in that opening set so that you can maximize the potential you established in college, especially since many teams use that second round pick on an up-and-coming European star who they can bank away for a rainy day.

All of that combines to make it especially risky for mid-major players. Those leaving early have to have achieved at such a high level that they leave no doubt they can do the same at the NBA level.

That is why you see a two-time All-American Doug McDermott returning to school. There were enough questions about his game that he was projected only into the second round. He can erase a lot of doubts by playing in the new Big East against tougher competition than that offered in the Missouri Valley.

But not everyone made the same choice, some on the good side; others on the bad.

Here are the mid-major players that are jumping ship:

1. Kelly Olynyk, Gonzaga: No one made a better choice than Olynyk. His performance this season, especially as break-out like as it was, could be difficult to duplicate. The extra gains he might - and emphasis on the might - make are going to be negligible compared to the huge impact he made this season. Add in that Gonzaga's competition in the West Coast will be very scarce next season (only BYU and no one else) and this is the right time to leave. Otherwise, there will be too many doubts about the level of competition and if he is another product of Gonzaga, and not the real thing.

2. Ray McCallum, Detroit: McCallum seems to have made the right decision, even though he looks like a second-round pick. The Titan program has a lot of issues buzzing around related to the alleged affair between an assistant coach and the former AD, and how it may have affected the job status of another assistant coach. Now Ray still has his father as his head coach and Big Ray isn't going anywhere, not if Detroit keeps competing for Horizon League titles. But a Player of the Year win for the point guard, and his apparent erasure of many of the knocks against him other than height -- he was noticeably stronger this season and his ability to control the game much improved -- should help push him up a number of boards. The Titans will also not be the team they were this season with the loss of its strong frontcourt. All around, this is a good move.

3. Tony Mitchell, North Texas: Mitchell might need a change of scenery more than any other player in college basketball. We have detailed some of his struggles this season, and his new coach's inability to get Mitchell into the offense enough to have the Mean Green fighting where they were in 2011-2. Mitchell has been on a lot of radars for a long time. He loses nothing by going now, especially since his stock might have taken a hit this season, and a repeat performance could mean bad things.

4. Adonis Thomas, Memphis: Memphis is making the jump to the Old Big East, which should still provide plenty of challenges for the Tigers, even if most of the strength will have bolted. But Thomas isn't taking that opportunity to improve any more than he did this season. He finished 2011-2 with a -0.3 HW30, about in line with what an average freshman puts on the court. His sophomore campaign saw that improve to a 2.3 mark, mostly on the offensive end. The swing man was about on par defensively with what he did the year prior, a solid 9.0 DEF100. But there doesn't seem to be a lot more room for Thomas to grow -- he was the second leading scorer on the team, the offense is too balanced to really take over, and he takes the highest percentage of shots of anyone on the Tigers. So this is about as good as it is going to get for Thomas, even if that is a fringe second-round slot.

5. Christian Kabongo, New Mexico State/Southern Miss/Morgan State: Kabongo has the talent, and I am not sure bouncing around from school to school is going to help him showcase that. He has nothing to lose, but missing a year and a half of action isn't going to help him.

6. Nurideen Lindsey, Rider: Lindsey's transfer from St. John's wasn't a good sign for the guard, and the offensive skills just haven't kicked in, even at Rider. He lost his starting job and will likely head to Europe. But you have to wonder if this is as good as it gets for Lindsey.

7. Trevis Simpson, UNC-Greensboro: The announcement from UNC-G and Simpson makes it clear that he is making this move to take care of his young family. This looks to be a Euro play, plain and simple.

8. Tahj Tate, Delaware State: This is never a good sign:

"I just feel like I would be a better NBA player than a college player," Tate said. "I feel like I can get a whole lot better, and right now I'm working hard towards that goal."

Tate is beyond a doubt one of the top players in the MEAC. But it is not going to get him the look he thinks he should have. I hope his "backup plan" is a good one.

9. Adrien Coleman, Bethune-Cookman: Another of the MEAC stars, and the leading scorer in the league this season, Coleman wanted to strike while the iron was hot. Unfortunately this doesn't seem hot enough. This isn't a Kyle O'Quinn situation where there is an NCAA record to follow him. Coleman is at least level-headed enough to know he is likely headed to Europe next season.

Coaching Carousel: American Hires Georgetown Assistant Mike Brennan to Replace Jeff Jones

2013-04-30T21:19:51Z

American has hired four-year Georgetown assistant Mike Brennan as its new head coach. The announcement was made a media event this afternoon.

Brennan will take over for the departing Jeff Jones who was hired by Old Dominion earlier this month. Jones had been the head coach since 2000.

Before serving on John Thompson III's staff at Georgetown, Brennan was an assistant for two years on Jones' staff at American, and for seven years prior to that he was an assistant at Princeton.

According to Casual Hoya, Brennan's hire at Georgetown was originally met with some ire given the heavy reliance on the Princeton offense, and the lack of recruiting skill that was attributed to him.

Dr. Billy Walker, the American athletic director, noted that Brennan's recruiting skill was one of the things that helped the new get hired.

The Eagles went 10-20 this season and 5-10 in conference, including a loss in the opening round of the Patriot League tournament after finishing tied for fifth during the regular season.

See all of the mid-major coaching changes on our Coaching Carousel page.

Green Bay Head Coach Brian Wardle Under Investigation

2013-04-16T12:56:58Z

Wisconsin-Green Bay will initiate the investigation of head coach Brian Wardle after accusations that he mentally and verbally abused his former players.

According to the Green Bay Press Gazette, Wisconsin-Green Bay will begin an investigation into allegations against head coach Brian Wardle after receiving accusations of verbal and emotional mistreatment from the parents of former center Ryan Bross.

Bross redshirted this season and informed the university that he would be transferring to Concordia University in Mequon, Wis.

His parents reported the alleged abuse in a letter to the university on Tuesday.

University Chancellor Thomas Harden stated that an outside agency will handle the investigation and that Wardle will be allowed to work during the investigation.

"We’re acting quickly," Harden said. "We’re going to move assertively and bring this to a conclusion as fast as we can."

Wardle released a statement earlier today: "I will be supportive of this process and I’m confident in the findings. I will have no further comment until it is concluded."

Bross is the fourth player to leave the program since the middle of February. Kam Cerroni left during the season citing differences with Wardle. Harden would not comment on whether the differences were related to the same issues as Bross. Nick Arenz and Sultan Muhammad are also transferring.

The 33-year-old head coach is in his third year coaching the Phoenix. He has led Green Bay to a 47-49 record and an appearance in the CollegeInsider.com Basketball Tournament this season.

Another Player Comes Forward With Allegations Against Green Bay's Wardle

2013-04-16T12:53:00Z

A second player has come forward with allegations against Green Bay head coach Brian Wardle, according to the Green Bay Press-Gazette's Rob Demovsky.

Graduating senior Brennan Cougill, who finished third on the team with 9.0 points per game this season, is also now alleging misconduct by the coach based on a letter written to the school by his mother.

The biggest item in Cougill's accusation is a list of 20 "distractions" that Wardle presented to Brennan and his mother following a four-game suspension that the senior served because of academic issues.

The list included Cougill's breakdown during a game against Milwaukee, one he thinks was precipitated by not taking anti-depression medication in the days leading up to the game. A Facebook post made by Cougill's mother criticizing the team's offensive strategy was also among the items.

According to Cougill's mother, Wardle told the two of them that most kids were released for less:

"So instead of talking to me, he pulled my son in and writes that in our little 20 distractions, and he said most kids get to six and are released from the team."

The letter has been turned over to local attorney Joseph Nicks, who is conducting an independent investigation into the allegations made by Ryan Bross and now Cougill.

Report: Davidson Close to Leaving Southern Conference for Atlantic 10

2013-04-15T02:42:18Z

The conference realignment train hasn't stopped yet, as Davidson could be close to joining the Atlantic 10 conference according to CBS Sports' Jeff Goodman.

The Wildcats, who won the Southern conference title this past season, previously had turned down a widely rumored invitation to the Colonial Athletic Association. This move would bring the Atlantic 10 back to 12 members for the 2014-15 season, as it is expected that Dayton and St. Louis will leave for the new Big East, and George Mason will join the league next season.

It would be an odd placement for Davidson as the team would be the Southern-most outpost of the league with the closest teams located in Virginia, and would add quite a bit of travel to the Northeast into the Wildcats' schedule for all sports.

That was the primary reason why the Colonial move didn't seem to make sense for Davidson according to comments by the school's administration was that the travel didn't make sense given the number of students that are involved in athletics at the North Carolina school. At the time the move was rumored, there were at least a couple of schools that were close to Davidson, yet not within driving distance as with the Southern Conference.

If the Wildcats are headed for the Atlantic 10, they will be at the bottom of one of their cycles of rebuilding. The best players from this season's team are graduating this season, and next year's seniors will also be gone. It will be a long season in its new league.

Goodman also notes that Siena is in the mix for possible expansion, which wouldn't make much sense unless more than just two schools are about to leave the league. Siena is at least a better fit geographically than Davidson.

Report: Loyola Chicago to Join Missouri Valley Conference

2013-04-13T22:06:05Z

Loyola-Chicago will become the 10th member of the Missouri Valley Conference, replacing the departing Creighton Bluejays, according to a report by KSDK in St. Louis, and confirmed to the Evansville Courier Press by a source with knowledge of the situation.

The Ramblers were one of the founding members of the Horizon League, and have a history that includes... well, what do you know, a National Championship.

But more importantly, it adds a young and improving team to the Missouri Valley as it attempts to fill a major gap left by Creighton. The Bluejays leave the conference for the new Big East as the defending champions of the MVC, and had made the NCAA Tournament in four of the last 10 seasons.

Now, the Ramblers won't be competing for the title this coming season, at least not if everything goes according to what you would expect. Wichita State actually returns members of its team this coming year, and Gregg Marshall waited no time in getting reinforcements with some skills.

Northern Iowa and Indiana State should also challenge for the title.

Still, this is a big step for the school from Chicago, one that should help the program take the next step and become a destination for higher profile recruits from the city and surrounding area. The Ramblers have already made some inroads along that path wooing Milton Doyle in his journey from Florida International and Kansas, and grabbing Cully Payne after his transfer.

The move is expected to be announced officially Friday.

Delaware's Jamelle Hagins Fills Stat Sheet on Portsmouth Opening Night

2013-04-11T03:27:49Z

The Portsmouth Invitational might be one of the last chances for some seniors to make enough of an impression to get that second look for the NBA Draft in a few months. Delaware's Jamelle Hagins sure made the most of opening night.

The Blue Hens senior had 29 points on 12 of 19 shooting and pulled down 11 rebounds as the Portsmouth Partnership beat the Mike Dugan Auto Sales team 90-89. Davidson's Jake Cohen added 16 points and two blocks in the win.

The Partnership needed every bit of their contributions to overcome Robert Covington's night. The Tennessee State star had 21 points and eight rebounds, but was not impressive with his shooting numbers. Southern Mississippi's Dwayne Davis added 16 points on 7-for-11 shooting.

You can be wary of these numbers though. Cohen's night was backed up with four fouls, which was his downfall during the season. Although he walked away with the Southern Conference Player of the Year award, he had trouble staying on the floor for the Wildcats. During the season, he averaged 5.1 fouls per 40 minutes. It doesn't take a math genius to know that meant he was spending a lot of time on the bench with crooked numbers in that column.

Hagins though? That was a special night.

In the other matchup, the mid-major players again had trouble overcoming the issues that have plagued them all season. D.J. Cooper went just 1-for-6 from the floor, and had only four assists to his three turnovers, as the starting point guard for the Norfolk Sports Club. Hawaii's Vander Joaquim had just eight points as the starting center, but did grab seven rebounds in his 26 minutes.

In general, the Sports Club just couldn't shoot, hitting just 32.4 percent from the floor, and an unspeakable 20.9 percent from 3-point range.

That was not the case on the other side of the floor. K&D Roundscaping got 15 points from Cal State Fullerton's DJ Seeley in 22 minutes off the bench, and Belmont's Ian Clark added 10 points and made four assists as the backup guard.

But the leaders on the day were BYU's Brandon Davies, who had 16 points and eight rebounds, and Valparaiso's Ryan Broekhoff added 12 points, including two 3-pointers, in the win.

The mid-major pair in the starting lineup (and the two on the bench) out shined their major conference teammates in the 91-67 blowout.

Broekhoff still had trouble rebounding, but showed how he can stretch the floor with his range from deep, and Clark showed his shooting streakiness in this one (but a shooter has to shoot).

But overall, you have to like what the mid-major players were able to put forth on day one, most especially Hagins ~~who will get a tough matchup against Oregon's Tony Woods and Wichita State's Carl Hall on Thursday night.~~ (Ed Note: Oops, the teams with similar names got me messed up... See you in the semifinals.)