Mid-Major Madness: All Posts by John Templon

Mid-Major Top 20 Preview: Iona Gaels

2012-10-13T13:00:20Z

Iona had a season for the ages in 2011-12. The Gaels had a high-flying offense and even when they stumbled during their 25-8 season, they looked good doing it. In fact, they looked so good that Iona received an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament after falling in the MAAC conference tournament. Of course, it all came crashing down in one of the greatest collapses in NCAA tournament history, as Iona lost a big lead and fell to BYU 78-72, but it was a heck of a run.

The problem is most of the key players have moved on. Scott Machado is now playing for the Houston Rockets in the NBA. The man in the front court Michael Glover is finding somewhere to get paid to play basketball and wing Kyle Smyth has moved on to Seton Hall thanks to the graduate transfer rules. Iona returns a few key players, most notably Lamont "Momo" Jones and Sean Armand, but Tim Cluess is basically rebuilding this team on the fly.

That's why you probably won't see the Gaels return to mid-major Top 20 this season. Oh sure, there's a ton of talent here, but there are also a ton of question marks.

First, can Jones become more of a true point guard now that Machado is gone? Last season the Arizona transfer was happy to play off the ball and pick his spots. He actually used fewer possessions than either Machado or Glover, yet somehow managed to get a reputation as a ball-hog. This season Jones will have the ball in his hands all the time. What he decides to do with it will make a big impact on an offense that ranked 17th in the nation last season according to adjusted offensive efficiency ($).

Secondly, how is Armand going to adjust to having defenses key on him? With Machado, Glover and Jones spacing the floor last season Armand feasted on defenses that were out of position and shot 46.2 percent from three. That includes making 10 at Madison Square Garden when the Gaels annihilated Siena. Now though he'll have a lot more attention on him. Can Armand rise up to the occasion? I think so.

Then there's the question of how fast the transfers and other newcomers will gel. Unfortunately, Iona tragically lost incoming recruit Michael Haynes when he was shot in Chicago. There's still a ton of new players coming in, including Toledo transfer Curtis Dennis who should provide some help defensively for the Gaels.

The other method for rebuilding that Cluess likes to use is junior college players. DeSean Anderson, DaShawn Gomez and Shawn Jackson, could all see playing time this season and all are JUCO recruits. Jackson - a 6-9 center - could be in the starting lineup from day one, or at least until another JUCO, David Laury, is eligible to play at the end of the first semester.

Non-conference play probably won't be quite as kind to Iona this season either. The Gaels play Rutgers at MSG and Georgia on the road and will meet either Connecticut or Wake Forest during the Paradise Jam. Throw in road trips to La Salle, Saint Joseph's and Saint Bonaventure and there's a lot of work to do. Competing for a MAAC title with a rebuilt roster would be a great accomplishment for Cluess.

Bottom Line: Expect a little bit of growing pains as Iona tries to incorporate a bunch of new faces into the rotation, but this team should be peaking in March. That's when you want to be playing your best basketball anyways.

Mid-Major Top 10: New Faces Head the MAAC Class

2012-08-16T14:00:19Z

The race for the MAAC Player of the Year Award could be as open as the league's crazy sprint to a title. After Iona's dominating run through the league last season, which led to an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament as the Gaels were upset by Loyola (MD) in the conference tournament, every team has question marks and an opportunity to capitalize.

Last season's top player, Iona's Scott Machado, graduated, along with two other All-MAAC First Team players in Machado's teammate Mike Glover and Fairfield's Rakim Sanders leaving the cupboard a little empty, but not bare.

Teams in the MAAC are compensating by bringing in talented transfers and junior college players. Ashton Pankey - from Maryland to Manhattan, and Curtis Dennis - from Toledo to Iona, both transferred this offseason and could make a big impact. (Pankey needs to have his waiver approved first.) Also, former St. John's guard Nurideen Lindsey, who transferred in 2011-12 at midseason will be eligible for Rider in December.

Here are 10 returning players that should make a big impact on their teams and the title race in the MAAC this season.

10. Harold Washington, Canisius - When you play for a team that went 5-25 and won just one conference game last season it is easy to get lost in the shuffle, even if you're scoring 17 points per game. The senior guard will hopefully help make Jim Baron's transition back to the bench a smooth one.

9. Emmy Andujar, Manhattan - The numbers themselves - 8.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game - don't really speak to what this 6'5" swingman from the Bronx can do. Adujar only played 26.2 minutes per game last season because of Steve Masiello's active defensive style. Expect him to improve on his multifaceted game during his sophomore season and help the Jaspers battle for the top spot in the league standings. With his ball-handling and rebounding skills Andujar is a one-man fast break waiting to happen and that can help Manhattan's offense this season.

8. Dylon Cormier, Loyola (MD) - Cormier made a big improvement from his freshman to sophomore season and it paid off in a second team All-MAAC selection. He averaged 13.4 points per game and did so while scoring at a very efficient rate, mostly because as a 6'2" guard he shot 52.4 percent on two-point attempts. Now he'll have to keep it up as the Greyhounds move into the favorite position in the league.

7. Derek Needham, Fairfield - Lots of people love Needham, but his turnovers cause a lot of concern considering he doesn't give the Stags much in terms of points (11.8 points in 30.2 minutes per game). Needham turned the ball over 2.9 times per game last season along with 3.4 assists per game. Fairfield is going to need even more from him in 2012-13 after the departure of Sanders. While Sydney Johnson's Princeton Offense calls for relatively equal ball distribution, Needham will be one of the key cogs. Needham is an excellent defender and was one of the reasons Fairfield ranked 11^th in the nation, and first in the MAAC in defensive steal percentage last season.

6. Sean Armand, Iona - The Gaels don't return much and what that does is open up a huge opportunity for Armand, one of the most efficient scorers in college basketball last season. Whether it was draining 10 threes at Madison Square Garden against Siena or scoring 25 points in a loss to Loyola (MD), it is obvious that Armand has the talent to put the ball in the basket. He only scored 9.5 points per game in 2011-12 because of spotty playing time and the fact that there just weren't enough shots to go around. Well, now Armand is going to be one of the "guys" for Iona and how he adjusts will make a big impact in the MAAC title race. Armand probably won't shoot 46.2 percent from three again this season, but the next guy on this list should be able to get him a bunch of open looks.

5. Lamont "Momo" Jones, Iona - After transferring from Arizona Jones was part of a dynamic backcourt that carried the Gaels to an at-large bid and an epic collapse against BYU. Jones is often thought of as a player that dominates the ball, but last season he used fewer possessions while on the court than Glover or Machado. They're gone and it's time for Jones to show what he's got, especially as a playmaker. He'll be given the keys to Tim Cluess' up-tempo attack and will have to find a way to get more than three assists per game if Iona is going to be successful. Part of that means integrating a whole new cast of teammates too, which could make this one of the most difficult assignments in the league.

4. Juan'ya Green, Niagara - Green burst onto the scene as a freshman last season and averaged 17.7 points per game. The 6'3" guard from Philadelphia, PA is part of a youth movement amongst the Purple Eagles that has Niagara poised to start challenging the league's top teams in the near future. Green scored in double-figures in his final eight games of last season and Niagara went 5-3. He'll have to keep scoring for his team to be successful, but he's also a key distributor and led Niagara with 4.5 assists per game. How he balances those two responsibilities will determine how Niagara does this season.

3. Erik Etherly, Loyola (MD) - Two things make the Greyhounds forward unique compared to everyone that has come before him on this list. The first is that he's 6'7" in a league dominated by guards. The second is that he is one of three returning All-MAAC First Team players. Etherly scored 13.7 points and grabbed 7.5 rebounds per game last season. Last season Etherly benefited from having another big body, 6'10" Shane Walker, on the low block with him. Walker graduated, which should leave more touches for Etherly. He'll probably be paired up with former Xavier forward Jordan Latham in the frontcourt instead this season.

2. George Beamon, Manhattan - The Jaspers came out of nowhere to be one of the most competitive teams in the league in 2011-12. A lot of that had to do with Masiello taking over the team, but also the competitive nature and desire of their star, Beamon. After spending countless hours running steps in the Bronx during the offseason Beamon came back and raised his scoring average from 16.3 points to 19.0 points per game while playing almost five fewer minutes per game. Beamon didn't score fewer than 10 points in any game last season. The one contest he missed due to injury the Jaspers lost by 18, to Columbia. Defenses are going to be even more focused on shutting him down this season, so hopefully Beamon has prepared even harder for his senior campaign.

1. O.D. Anosike, Siena - A double-double machine, Anosike gives the Saints the ability to play with anyone in the MAAC. He averaged 15.0 points and 12.5 rebounds per game last season. There are some weaknesses in his game. He shot just 56.1 percent from the line, but that's nitpicking. Anosike also helps out on the defensive end, where he had 1.1 steals and 1.0 blocks per game last season. At 6'8" in the MAAC though that second number should be higher. He'll be the focal point of Siena's attack as the Saints try to keep pace with Loyola (MD), Manhattan and the rest of the league.

Mid-Major Top 10: Northeast Conference

2012-08-07T14:00:28Z

What happens when just three of 10 first and second team all-conference players graduate? You end up with a pretty loaded conference the next season. That's the case in the Northeast Conference where a ton of individual talent returns in what could be a very strong season for the league. Three teams - LIU Brooklyn, Wagner and Robert Morris - are expected to battle at the top of the league. All three of those teams are loaded with talented players.

Also, last season's particularly strong freshman class will become sophomores, the biggest leap a player can make during their collegiate lifecycle, so expectations are high for some of the best of last season's class.

Of course, all of this might only add up to the conference winner avoiding the 16-seed line come March, but that's a big step. Last season the NEC ranked 26th in the Pomeroy rankings, ahead of the Big Sky, Southland, America East, MEAC and SWAC amongst automatic bid conferences. It could move up even further this season, because of the talent that can be found in this Top 10.

10. Lucky Jones, Robert Morris -- One of those freshmen expected to take a leap is Jones. The 6'5" swingman wasn't afraid to shoot last season and put up strong rebounding numbers on both sides of the ball. He's a defensive presence and should be even better this season with a year of experience in Andy Toole's system. Another good sign for Colonials fans? Jones has been tearing up the Pittsburgh Basketball Club Pro-Am this summer.

9. Jalen Cannon, St. Francis (NY) -- The Terriers were picked 11th in NEC in the preseason last season and went on to finish fourth in the league. A lot of it had to do with the impact that Cannon made during his freshman season as a rebounder and defensive presence. Last season he was amongst the best rebounders in the country, finishing 11th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. His combination of a low turnover rate and an ability to get to the free throw line resulted efficient offense, but he'll need to look for his own shot more during his sophomore season to move into the conference's elite.

8. Kyle Vinales, Central Connecticut -- Last season's NEC Rookie of the Year Vinales has a much bigger load to carry now that All-NEC First Team performer Ken Horton has graduated. Vinales showed last season that he's not afraid to shoot, a lot, but he'll have to improve his accuracy if he wants to be an elite player and not just a volume scorer. Vinales has a chance to become an 1,000-point scorer at CCSU during his sophomore season after scoring 520 points during his freshman season, the most ever for a freshman Blue Devil.

7. Latif Rivers, Wagner -- The way the Seahawks played under Dan Hurley, and probably will play under new head coach Bashir Mason, makes pinpointing any one player as the key cog in the rotation rather difficult, but Rivers did enough last season to make the NEC Second Team as a sophomore. The graduation of fellow Second Team player Tyler Murray should give Rivers even more opportunities to score this season. Rivers shot 35.1% from three in 2010-11, but it can improve. Teammate Jonathon Williams, a senior, could've been on this list too, but I just ran out of room. The former junior college transfer was an instant upgrade last season to Wagner's front court rotation.

6. Jason Brickman, LIU Brooklyn -- Brickman loves to pass and he's the engine that drives the best offense in the NEC. Last season his assist rate of 35.6 ranked 25th nationally. But that doesn't mean you should sag off of him. Brickman also shot 52/41/82 on twos, threes and free throws last season. He's a complete offensive player who can stay on the floor for long periods of time because he rarely gambles or makes a mistake on defense. In fact, Brickman committed fewer than one foul per 40 minutes last season.

5. Ike Azotam, Quinnipiac -- Azotam is probably the best back-to-the-basket big man in the NEC. At 6'7" he's the perfect size for a traditional forward in the NEC. He didn't attempt a single three-point shot last season and shot almost as well from the field (55.6%) as he did from the line (61.1%). He'll need that free throw percentage to improve this season if he wants to help Quinnipiac go further than a first round exit, especially because with James Johnson gone Azotam will be the clear focus of the Bobcats' attack. Johnson's departure makes getting Azotam the ball even more important, but also more difficult. It'll be up to him to demand the ball in the post.

4. Jamal Olasewere, LIU Brooklyn -- The Swiss Army Knife of forwards the 6'7" Olasewere can do a little of everything. He's excellent at putting pressure on opponents with his dribble drives from the top of the key. By shooting 34.1% from three last season he made it so opponents had to respect that part of his game as well. His incredible athleticism is the key to his game. Rim rattling dunks and acrobatic layups helped Olasewere finish 60.2% of his shots inside the arc. It shows up on the defensive end too, where he put up block and steal rates above three percent. The one part of his game that could use some refinement is turnovers. If he can hang onto the ball more he'll be almost unstoppable.

3. Velton Jones, Robert Morris -- Jones is the heart and soul of the RMU team, which has reached the NEC finals in each of his three seasons. His ability as a playmaker is rivaled only by Brickman in the NEC and he's an incredibly pesky defender. The 6'0" point guard is also as tough as they come and is fearless going down the lane. He's a coach on the floor for Toole. Jones is also one of the best clutch performers in the NEC.

2. Shane Gibson, Sacred Heart -- This 6'2" shooting guard might be the best player no one in the country has ever heard about. That's because the Pioneers can't seem to escape the middle of the NEC, despite the fact that no opposing coach wants to see Gibson taking a shot ever. He's a high-volume gunner that shot a ridiculous 56/43/86 last season. Everyone knows that Gibson is going to shoot early and often. NEC teams run as many as four or five defenders at him every game. He still averaged 22.0 points per game last season. His legacy though will be decided by the players around him and if SHU can escape the first round of the NEC Tournament come March.

1. Julian Boyd, LIU Brooklyn -- Considering Boyd is the returning unanimous NEC Player of the Year this is the easiest spot on the list to pick. Boyd, who missed the entire 2009-10 season with a heart ailment, has been one of the best players in the conference his entire career. Last season he led the NEC in rebounding and double-doubles. More of a face-up guy on the low blocks, he stepped out even further last season and hit 42% of his three-point shots as he led the Blackbirds to a 16-2 conference record and their second straight NCAA tournament appearance. Boyd will feel the pressure again as he tries to lead the Blackbirds to a third straight dance.

QB Rating+: A different way to look at a flawed statistic

2011-01-29T14:34:21Z

It's obvious by now that quarterback rating is a flawed statistic. The poor statistic has been battered around a bit in the media and with good reason. With the changes to the passing game today it's pretty hard to see the value in a rating without any context. Oh sure, Tom Brady led the league with 111 passer rating this season, but is that historically good? Just alright? It's hard to tell.

Well, that's why I borrowed a concept from baseball and compared quarterback ratings to league average. In baseball the term ERA+ is thrown around a lot for pitchers, but it's basically a park adjusted ERA against league average. Well, in football there is no need for stadium adjustments - at least as far as we know right now - and thus we can just divide Quarterback Rating by League Average Quarterback Rating and a get a number that allows us to more accurately measure passers across seasons.

For instance, Brady's 111 rating was done in the context of an NFL season where the average passer rating for the entire league was 82.2, which is pretty high. Therefore his QB Rating+ would be (111/82.2*100) or 135.0. It turns out that's pretty good.

Here are the ten best QB Rating+ seasons of the past decade with their season, player and QB Rating+:

2004 - Peyton Manning (Ind.) 149.7
2007 - Tom Brady (NE) 144.9
2004 - Daunte Culpepper (Min.) 137.1
2010 - Tom Brady (NE) 135.0
2000 - Brian Griese (Den.) 135.0
2009 - Drew Brees (NO) 135.0
2000 - Trent Green (StL) 133.6
2005 - Peyton Manning (Ind.) 133.1
2002 - Chad Pennington (NYJ) 132.6
2001 - Kurt Warner (StL) 132.4

Ironically, 2009 Brett Favre is #11 on this list. He had a 107.4 raw quarterback rating that season, but only a 132.0 QB Rating+. Warner's 2001 season on the other hand was a 101.4, but the average quarterback rating has steadily risen from 76.2 in 2000 to 82.2 this season. That's a big difference.

Still, I think QB Rating+ is a good start in attempting to compare quarterbacks across eras and years instead of just looking at a statistic that has inflated as offenses have changed in complexion.