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Fiesta Wrap-Up: Glass Ceiling in the Desert?

Fiesta_bowl_boise_st_football_idncp203

The battle of unbeaten mid-major conference champions culminated Monday night in an intriguing, yet deceptive, match-up in Glendale, Arizona. Sixth-ranked Boise State (14-0), of the Western Athletic Conference, outlasted third-ranked TCU (12-1), of the Mountain West Conference, 17-10 to claim its second Fiesta Bowl victory in four years and become the second team in college football history to finish with a 14-0 record.

In a game dominated by defensive prowess and sub-par offensive output, Boise State employed trickery reminiscent of its 2007 win over Oklahoma in the same venue. With the score locked at 10-10, nine minutes left in the fourth quarter and both offenses struggling, Boise punter Kyle Brotzman connected with tight end Kyle Efaw for a 29-yard pick-up and a Bronco first down in Horned Frog territory. The fourth down gamble by Broncos coach Chris Petersen paid off, as running back Doug Martin dove in for Boise's lone offensive touchdown of the game and swept away any momentum had by TCU.

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Mid Major Bowl Breakdown: Fiesta Bowl

Fiesta Bowl:

Boise State vs. TCU     

Although a shot at one of the major conference opponents escaped both of these teams, this could turn out to be one of the best bowl games of them all. Some can consider this one to be sort of a dull ending two two seasons, Fiestabowllogo_mediumbut we still get to see a matchup between two teams with top offenses and top defenses. The Horned Frogs are the only team that rank in the top four in total offense and total defense. Their nasty front line is led by defensive end Jerry Hughes and linebacker Daryl Washington, who contribute to allowing only 23.2 yards per game. TCU's offense averages 40.6 points per game and 469 yards per game, which makes this team an unbelievable threat on both sides of the ball. Boise State brings to the table the nation's top ranked scoring defense, allowing just 44.1 yards per game. Their offensive line does an outstanding job protecting QB Kellen Moore (3,325 yards, 39 touchdowns, 3 interceptions) and allows just .38 sacks per game. The Broncos are second in the nation in the air and are number two in turnover margin. Look for Boise to try and take advantage of the Frogs in that category. We could find ourselves staring down the throat of another Poinsettia Bowl (last year TCU won 17-16) or we could be witness to an offensive shootout. TCU will look to utilize the ground game as they are 5th in the nation in rushing yards, while Boise will be attacking through the air behind the nation's top rated passer in Moore. This will be a fantastic game with both teams putting on a great show, but I am going to have to take TCU on this one, as they look to continue their dominance and prove not only that they are one of the best defenses in the nation, but one of the best teams as well. TCU wins by a few ... 30-24.

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Mid Major Bowl Breakdown: GMAC Bowl

GMAC Bowl:

Central Michigan vs. Troy

This will be a classic battle between two stellar quarterbacks and their powerful offenses. Interesting story for Gmac_mediumCentral Michigan though, as they will be facing the Sun Belt Conference champion without the coach who led them to their first national ranking. The Chippewas are the MAC champs for the third time in four seasons, and now they look to finish the season strong against a tough Troy team. Central Michigan is led by four year starter QB Dan LeFevour, who has thrown for 27 TDs and run for another 14 this year to bring his career total up to 147, which sets the major college football mark. His best weapon and favorite target, receiver Bryan Anderson has caught at least one pass in an NCAA record 53 consecutive games. Throw in receiver Antonio Brown who has team highs of 97 catches for 1,020 yards and nine touchdowns, and you have an offense that is hard to beat. I have a feeling however that the Troy offense may be able to keep up. Troy throws the ball just as good as any non-BCS team aside from Houston, and over their last six games averaged a total of 41.2 points.QB Levi Brown leads the charge and is second in the nation in passing yards per game at 322.3, and he tallied a total of 3,868 passing yards, the most in Troy's or Sun Belt history. This is the first meeting between the schools, and it is going to be explosive. Troy has won (at least a share) of the Sun Belt title for the fourth consecutive year, while the Chippewas will be entering their fourth consecutive bowl game. I am going to go with Central Michigan on this one simply for this fact: Troy's defense is not what it has been in recent years, and LeFevour looks to finish off his spectacular career by taking advantage of any and every opportunity given on game day. Expect LeFevour to launch away, but Levi Brown will be close behind ... Central Michigan wins 38-34.

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Mid Major Bowl Breakdown: Liberty Bowl

Liberty Bowl:

Arkansas vs. East Carolina


This game will give East Carolina a chance to record its first 10-win season since 1991, an opportunity they let slip last season after blowing a 16-3 lead against Liberty-bowl-2008_mediumKentucky to lose the game 25-19. Arkansas looks to add a to their season resume during their first bowl appearance under second year coach Bobby Petrino. Unfortunately, the Pirates will go from QB Case Keenum to Razorback QB Ryan Mallett, who leads the nation's 10th ranked pass offense with 3,425 yards and 29 touchdowns. You can bet that Mallett watched the Conference USA championship game tape and was taking notes at Houston's air attack and Case Keenum bombing away. The Pirates will have their hands full with Mallett, especially with the nation's 110th ranked pass defense. Just assume Mallett will throw for over 300. However, this one could be interesting as East Carolina finds ways to win with its defense (see: Houston; C-USA championship game) and has an offensive that may be timely enough to get the job done. Bad things usually happen when C-USA teams face the SEC, but East Carolina is 1st in the conference and 6th in the nation in turnover margin, so in order to keep this one close and pull out a W, they need to be at least plus 2 in that category. I am going to take Arkansas on this one, as they look to gain some momentum going into 2010 ... 35-27.

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Mid Major Bowl Breakdowns: Texas, Armed Forces Bowl

Texas Bowl:

Missouri vs. Navy

A great way to start your New Year's Eve celebration early...

Missouri is bringing a three game winning streak into their fifth consecutive bowl game appearance. Navy is  Texas-bowl-logo-295_medium
bringing its most victories in three seasons to their academy-record 7th straight bowl game appearance. This game has all the symptoms of an exciting, high-scoring offensive shootout. Although this is the first meeting between these two teams since 1961, contrasting offenses should make for a great game. Navy is fourth in the nation in rushing yards at 272.5 yards per game, and their powerful option offense is led by junior QB Ricky Dobbs. Dobbs rushed for 1,037 yards himself, and set a single-season record for rushing touchdowns by a QB with 24. Dobbs will certainly be facing one of his biggest tests, as he faces a Missouri rush defense that is 12th in the nation, allowing only 96.4 yards per game on the ground. Missouri brings to the table a powerful passing game that ranks 14th in the nation with 298.4 yards per game. Sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert had an unbelievable season, throwing for 3,302 yards, 23 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions. His favorite target was senior receiver Danario Alexander, who caught 107 balls for 1,644 yards and 13 touchdowns. Navy will have their hands full trying to stop the nation's hottest receiver in Alexander. Navy puts in the effort, but I am going to have to go with Mizzou on this one, because they are just too hard to stop if they get it going early. Navy can be hit-or-miss, winning games against Notre Dame but losing to Hawaii. I'll keep it high-scoring and close, just for entertainment's sake ....Missouri wins ... 39-31.

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Mid Major Bowl Breakdown: Las Vegas Bowl

Las Vegas Bowl:

BYU vs. Oregon State 

Could be good, could be bad ... only one way to find out:

BYU is no stranger to the Las Vegas Bowl, as this will be their fifth straight appearance, going 2-2 against Pac-10 teams in the bowl. This game also has special implications for Cougar coach Bronco Mendenhall. Should BYU win this one, and he will be defeating the team he played for over 20 years ago. Oregon State has won five straight bowlEvent-2009-maaco-16x9_medium games, but has to be disappointed they are not closing out their season in the Rose Bowl. BYU boasts a powerful, high-scoring offense that ranks 18th in the nation in total yards as well as 13th in the nation in both passing yards and points per game. The Cougars will expect big things from QB Max Hall who set a school record for victories by a QB at 31. Hall will be throwing to Tight End Dennis Pitta, who leads the team with 57 catches, 784 yards and 7 touchdowns. The Beavers' QB Sean Canfield looks to be equally impressive, after throwing 21 touchdowns, and leading the conference with 3,103 passing yards. BYU's rush defense needs to be on point, as they face a major problem in Beaver RB Jacquizz Rodgers, who ran for 1,377  yards and a school record 20 touchdowns ... as a sophomore. His older brother James led Oregon State in receptions with 87, and had 1,007 yards and 9 touchdowns. I've got to with Oregon State in this one. When BYU has been bad this season, it has been miserable. If QB Max Hall has a bad game, the Cougars have no chance. BYU would love to make a statement against a Pac-10 team, but they are up against Canfield and the Rodgers brothers. Close game, but the edge goes to the Beavers ... 31-30. 

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Mid Major Bowl Breakdown: Poinsettia Bowl

Poinsettia Bowl:

Cal vs. Utah 

This one will actually be a good matchup. Here's why:

Poinsettia_20bowl_20logo_mediumBoth of these teams are relatively similar. They are similar in total offense and points scored per game, and they are similar in the fact that both teams have to be disappointed with how their seasons turned out. Both squads entered the season with BCS bowl dreams dancing in their heads. However inconsistent play soon followed and those hopes were squashed quickly. Utah will try to extend the nation's longest postseason winning streak to 9 against the Golden Bears. Under Coach Jeff Tedford, Cal has reached a bowl game for a school-record 7 consecutive seasons, while winning the past four. Cal will have some trouble in this one without the help of star tailback Jahvid Best who is sidelined after a nasty fall and concussion last month. RB Shane Veeren filled in for Best, tallying 444 yards and should get most of the touches against a Utah team that allows 141.3 rushing yards per game. Look for Cal to keep it on the ground, as QB Kevin Riley should have some trouble against a Utes team that led the Mountain West with 15 interceptions and held opponents to 172.8 passing yards. Freshman QB Jordan Wynn will start for the Utes, but expect them to utilize the ground game as well. Utah RB Eddie Wide led the Mountain West in rushing with 1,032 yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. The Golden Bears rush defense has given up 365 yards on the ground in the past two games. Running games aside, I'm gonna have to give the edge to Utah. They lost three games this year, two of them to BCS teams (Oregon and TCU) and the third to BYU in overtime. Cal got blown out by sub-.500 Washington at the end of the season, and when the Bears are bad ... they're really bad. If Cal shows up for this one, it'll be a close one. Utah takes it ... 29-27.

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Mid Major Bowl Breakdown: New Orleans Bowl

New Orleans Bowl:

Southern Mississippi vs. Middle Tennessee State

Why you shouldn't miss out on this one:Neworleansbowl_medium

This bowl could be surprisingly one-sided either way, but at the same time has all the necessary factors to be a sneaky good one. Southern Miss will be making their second consecutive trip to the New Orleans Bowl, in which they are 3-0 all time. This also marks their 12th bowl appearance in 13 seasons. Don't expect Middle Tennessee to take this one sitting down, as they boast a nasty front seven that leads the nation in tackles for a loss at 8.83 and is fourth in the nation in sacks at 3.17. The difference in this one might come down to defense, as Southern Miss is equally strong off the ball. The Blue Raiders have exceeded all expectations this season. After getting off to a 3-3 start, they look to grab their seventh straight victory against the Golden Eagles. Blue Raiders QB Dwight Dasher has been outstanding, recording nearly 300 total yards of offense per game, ninth best in the FBS, and tallying 2,627 yards and 21 touchdowns. Southern Miss will turn to QB Martevius Young, and RB Damion Fletcher (who needs just 63 yards to become the ninth player to reach 1,000 in all four seasons) for the answers on offense. Both teams have had good seasons, but besides a win over Maryland, MTSU's second best win of the year came against ULM. I'll have to take Southern Miss on this one, but not by much ... 30-27.  

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