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cfic article

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just some simple averaging projections, more articles to come

Steamer Projections!

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Of all the projection systems, Steamer was by far the best in projecting pitcher performance last year, and the 2012 projections just came out.

Very Early Projections: 2012 Season Standings

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As the linked headline suggests, these are 'mostly useless' projections, but it's January and what else do we have to do? The analysis behind this is quite good, if still early (using CAIRO projections, MLB 40-man rosters and simulating the season 100,000 times). Cubs project to finish at 71-91 if you're an optimist and round up with a 1.01% chance of making the playoffs. Surprisingly, they still project to finish fourth in the division, not that it's any consolation.

Jon Jay NL Batting Champ 2012? - Have your say over at Fangraphs

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The 2012 FAN projections over at fangraphs are now open! Viva El Hive-mind.

Final Preseason DVOA Projections

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Who is that ranked 19th at -5.5% and also 3 spots lower than the Kansas City Chiefs? Why that's our very own San Diego Chargers. Commence Football Outsiders hatred....now...wait........now!

Injuries or suckitude? Parsing blame for the Reds 2009 shortfall

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This is my investigation of whether it was injuries or lack of performance that caused the Reds to undershoot their projections in 2009. Methods aren't perfect, but I think the approach is reasonably novel (though I could be wrong). -j

PECOTA Vs. The Chicago White Sox -- CSTB

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Silver knows it’s been tougher to figure out the White Sox than a presidential election. PECOTA badly missed predicting the 2005 World Champs, forecasting a mere 80 wins. Next, BP shorted the Sox in ‘06 before nailing their performance in ‘07 - a year everthing went horribly wrong. Last season, the Sox again whipped PECOTA’s projections and contributed significantly to the system’s first historical increase in average error predicting team wins. On average, PECOTA now blows its forecasts by an averge of 8.5 wins, ending a steady trend toward increasing accuracy with a rude blemish.

BP Projected Standings are up

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For those without a subscription, Wicked Good Sports Red Sox Blog has a screenshot of BP's projected standings up. Some surprises: The A's take the AL West with 82 wins. Their OBP also is 6th in the AL, a big improvement over the last place they sported last year. The White Sox are projected to go from first to last in the Central, and the World Series Teams are both in 3rd place in their divisions. Computers obviously have no glue about how many wins Championships add the following season. The Mets allow the fewest runs in the NL? Tim Redding makes that much of a difference from last year's rotation?

The Yankees offense ain't all that?

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At least that's what PECOTA thinks. BP's system has the Yankees more than 50 batting runs behind CHONE and CAIRO projections. The most notable disparity is Posada, who PECOTA thinks is gonna die and be 6 BR less valuable then Brett Gardner? I don't have a BP sub anymore so I'm not sure if its mostly a playing time issue but that's rough. I bet JORGE SAYS NO to that. The other large gap between CHONE/CAIRO and PECOTA is Arod, who is pegged at 107, 110, and 97 batting runs respectively. One commenter over there noted that PECOTA thinks A-rod will decline by two full wins instead of the usual half-win, which I frankly don't understand.

Early Projected Standings using THT Projections

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Replacement Level Yankees Weblog has some very early projected standings up. From the site: Here are the results of 100 trials of the 2009 season using rosters as of yesterday and projections from the Hardball Times. Since there are so many FA still out there it's quite early to do this (the author acknowledge this). Thus there's a high bias for the Yankees since they signed their FA early. Still 100+ wins on average is quite impressive, with the fewest runs allowed in the AL as well. Other things of note: The AL West has no team .500 or over in it, projecting -20 wins for the Angels from last years 100. Top and bottom are only separated by < 5 games. The White Sox have gone from top to bottom in one season, a full 8 games below the Royals. I'm sure Ozzie Guillen would have a couple choice words for that computer. Like their city brethren the Mets project the best record in the NL. The Cubs unsurprisingly are second and lead the NL Central. But the NL West leader is a bit of a surprise, the Rockies on top even after losing Matt Holliday. I guess a healthy Tulowitzki and Helton must give them a large boost in the simulator. Even Pirates fans can get into this as they tied for the Wild Card in one simulation. Orioles and Nats fans, sorry.

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