There is a danger when you are looking at the HOOPWAR numbers. You might get excited just a little too early.
Take our game of the week. We ran the numbers on Saint Louis first and it was promising. We saw a well-balanced team between Grandy Glaze, Dwayne Evans and Jordair Jett, all on pace to have a 3-plus HW30 season. That isn't stellar, but when you are looking for balance, that makes for a formidable core for your team.
But then I took a look at Wichita State, and things don't look good for the Billikens.
The core is there too, but with greater strength than the core of Saint Louis. Ron Baker is on pace for a seven win season. Fred Van Vleet is looking at a six win year. Even Cleanthony Early is on pace to match last season when he was worth almost five wins for the Shockers.
That isn't just a core, that is a team that is taking to their opponents and looking as if they belong in a league that we don't cover.
Wichita State is currently looking at a deep bench that can bring value after value into the lineup and match or better what Saint Louis can throw at them, with Chadrack Lufile and Nick Wiggins leading the way.
For last week's game we gave three things that could turn the tide between two very close teams, but this game isn't looking close based on the numbers. Wichita State's defense (all but two players have DEF100 scores over 0) looks like it could overwhelm the core of Saint Louis and take this game.
All this value just looks too much to overcome for the Billikens.
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