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NCAA Tournament Projections: What Seed Will Automatic Bids Receive?

With almost all of the conference tournaments complete, we project on what seed line we will see our tournament champions.

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The last two weeks are kind of a blur around here, but we have taken the time to put together NCAA Tournament resumes for all of the teams that have emerged victorious in their conference tournaments.

This was laid out in a pretty chart, with Top 50 wins and losses, Top 100 wins and losses, bad losses (101-200) and very bad losses (201+). I am sharing it with you in Google Docs, because putting it here will just look ugly.

As it was, the chart made my head hurt and I am glad I don't do this bracketology stuff very often any more.

But after looking through it all, here is where I think our conference tournament champions will be seeded come Sunday night. Note that we did not seed the Missouri Valley, WCC, or Atlantic 10 teams that should be in as they will be somewhere between the 2- and 11-line.

12-seed: Wyoming Cowboys, Buffalo Bulls, Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks, Wofford Terriers
13-seed: Valparaiso Crusaders, Harvard Crimson, UC Irvine Anteaters, Georgia State Panthers (if win)
14-seed: Northeastern Huskies (13 if Georgia Southern wins), Eastern Washington Eagles, Belmont Bruins, New Mexico State Aggies, Georgia Southern Eagles (if win)
15-seed: North Dakota State Bison, Texas Southern Tigers, Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, UAB Blazers
16-seed: Albany Great Danes, Manhattan Jaspers
16-seed in Dayton: Lafayette Leopards, North Florida Ospreys, Robert Morris Colonials, Hampton Pirates

A couple of notes here:

  • Northeastern gets the nod to move up to the 13 line based on having four Top 100 wins, the most of any team on this list (just a lot of bad losses).
  • Coastal Carolina avoids the 16 line by virtue of its two top 100 wins. Would not be surprised to see them slip down.
  • Texas Southern has a scary good resume, and deserves a better fate than a 16-seed with two top 100 wins, and one Top 50 win. Plus they avoided a ton of chances to get handed a very bad loss. The committee should do them right with a 15-seed.
  • Buffalo will be an interesting case study for schedule hawks. Bulls went 3-5 against the top 100, but did most of that damage in the conference. Will they get punished for not winning out of conference more often?
  • North Dakota State is also an odd bean. Most projections have them seeded higher, but the resume is not there to support it.