Bubble Watch Update: Atlantic 10 Keeps On Fighting

A week and a half ago we took a look at the Atlantic 10 and who might deserve an at-large bid in the conference beyond the Dayton Flyers.  St. Joseph's came out on top of blind resume poll with St. Bonaventure behind them.  Since that poll went live the Atlantic 10 has become even more of a rock fight with the unpredictable happening night after night.

So, where do we stand now after another wild night in the A10 on Wednesday?

Dayton Flyers (22-5, 12-3)

RPI: 17
Avg RPI Win: 132
Avg RPI Loss: 72
Good Wins: Iowa (19), at St. Bonaventure (34), Monmouth (41), Alabama (44), GW (46), Vanderbilt (49)
Bad Losses: at La Salle (234)

The Flyers are still very much an at-large team after a rough week that forced them out of the Top 25 poll and our top spot in the Mid-Major Power 15. Home matchups against Rhode Island and VCU remain for Archie Miller's squad, and so does a road trip to struggling Richmond.  If the Flyers drop two of those games, you have to wonder if their "lock" status may come into question? All in all the Flyers should be okay and will be a dangerous team in March.

St. Joseph's Hawks (23-5, 11-3)

RPI: 23
Avg RPI Win: 156
Avg RPI Loss: 38
Good Wins: Dayton (17), Princeton (40), at GW (46), at Temple (48)
Bad Losses: NONE

The Hawks were flying high after knocking off Dayton last week, and then they laid a dud against Davidson.  While the Power 5 wins aren't there for Phil Martelli's squad, there is no reason they shouldn't get an at-large bid at this point.  St. Joe's just needs to take care of business in their last three games with home matchups against Saint Louis and Duquesne and a tough road trip to St. Bonaventure.

St. Bonaventure Bonnies (19-7, 11-3)

RPI: 34
Avg RPI Win: 150
Avg RPI Loss: 93 
Good Wins: at Dayton (17), at St. Joseph's (23), George Washington (46)
Bad Losses: at LaSalle (234)

The Bonnies are one of the nation's best kept secrets and are sporting a weird resume when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. The Bonnies beat two A10 at-large threats, Dayton and St. Joe's, ON THE ROAD.  The problem is a soft non-conference slate left them with no quality wins outside of the conference.  This is a fun squad to watch, and hopefully, they can overcome their resume deficiencies to go dancing.

George Washington Colonials (21-7, 10-5)

RPI: 46
Avg RPI Win: 156
Avg RPI Loss: 88
Good Wins: vs. Virginia (5), vs. Seton Hall (45)
Bad Losses: at DePaul (178), at St. Louis (191)

The absolute drubbing GW put on LaSalle in Foggy Bottom on Sunday shows that the Colonials and their team of international assassins are going all in for an NCAA Tournament bid.  Despite losses at DePaul and Saint Louis, Mike Lonergan still has that big win over Virginia in his back pocket. GW has run out of chances against the conference's best but they still have an opportunity to sweep VCU and Davidson this season, which would be meaningful come Selection Sunday.

Davidson Wildcats (17-9, 8-6)

RPI: 55
Avg RPI Win: 146
Avg RPI Loss: 66
Good Wins: St. Joseph's (23)
Bad Losses: at St. Louis (191), at George Mason (164)

Bob McKillop's Wildcats are the A10's dirty little secret at this point in the season. Does Davidson have an at-large resume? No.  But why are we ignoring them if we still have to talk about VCU.  The Wildcats have a better RPI than VCU, have won five of their last six, and could play a major spoiler the final three games of the season with matchups against VCU and GW.  I wouldn't want to play Jack Gibbs and company in Brooklyn.

VCU Rams (20-8, 11-3)

RPI: 60
Avg RPI Win: 156
Avg RPI Loss: 76
Good Wins: at St. Joseph's (23), at St. Bonaventure (34)
Bad Losses: at UMass (160), at George Mason (164)

When February first started, Will Wade's Rams were on a 12 game tear and looked to be on the road to securing an at-large bid.  Since then VCU has gone 3-3 with dreadful losses at UMass and George Mason. Those bad losses should have the Rams on the outside looking in, but they still seem to have one thing going for them. their name. While VCU has had a pedestrian February, the Rams still have the most opportunity left on the schedule with matchups against GW, Davidson, and Dayton.  Winning two of those last three games would be meaningful for VCU's resume but so would losing them.