Mid-Major Madness - Mid-Major Mashups: Looking Deeper at Computer Rankings"So what are they going to call it? NonPower5Madness.com?"https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50397/midmajor-fav.png2012-11-04T09:41:15-08:00http://www.midmajormadness.com/rss/stream/33399192012-11-04T09:41:15-08:002012-11-04T09:41:15-08:00Ivy League Tough to Project: 10,000 Sims Say So
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<figcaption>The results in the Ivy League depend quite a bit on the shadowy face of Harvard | Christian Petersen</figcaption>
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<p>Big Apple Buckets' John Templon has run the Ivy League through 10,000 simulations ... twice. The results differ based on your starting assumptions, but the top of the Ivy has one team in common in each set of projections. </p> <p>With all the <a href="http://www.midmajormadness.com/2012/10/30/3575878/mid-major-mashups-looking-deeper-at-computer-rankings">attention paid to the computer rankings</a> and projections this past week, John Templon at <a href="http://nycbuckets.com/">Big Apple Buckets</a> took it one step further. </p>
<p>John ran each set of projections for the Ivy League (both <a href="http://www.midmajormadness.com/college-basketball-season-preview-2012-2013/2012/10/30/3575002/mid-majors-score-well-in-tempo-free-computer-ratings">Dan Hanner's</a> and <a href="http://www.midmajormadness.com/college-basketball-season-preview-2012-2013/2012/10/30/3576846/pomeroy-rankings-mid-major-ivy-league-missouri-valley-creighton">Ken Pomeroy's</a>) <a href="http://nycbuckets.com/2012/11/10000-sims-ivy-league/">through 10,000 simulations</a>. The end results were widely different, which shows how wild the eight-team conference could be this season.</p>
<p>The biggest discrepancy comes from Harvard, which could either see its untested talent step up with the loss of <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/100433/brandyn-curry">Brandyn Curry</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/100437/kyle-casey">Kyle Casey</a>, or could slip back into the pack.</p>
<p>Under Pomeroy's system, Harvard is right there with Princeton at the top of the pack. In fact, the two are virtually indistinguishable. But with Hanner's numbers, the Crimson don't fare too well as the losses of Curry and Casey are exaggerated.</p>
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<p>After taking away the challenge from Harvard, Princeton won the title outright 57% of the time. Also, Columbia gets a big boost, almost tripling its chances. On the other side, Harvard plummets and Penn's chances go from longshot to non-existant.</p>
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<p>In either case, Princeton hangs at the top of the standings, and sure looks like the team to beat in the Ivy.</p>
https://www.midmajormadness.com/2012/11/4/3598912/big-apple-buckets-plays-ivy-league-season-20k-times-computer-simulationBenjamin Miraski2012-11-02T18:42:30-07:002012-11-02T18:42:30-07:00Broken, Battered, and Arrested: The Injury Report
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<p>We don't have the army of reporters that CBS can afford. But if we did, I am still not sure we would dedicate the time to contacting every single Division 1 team to find out the injury situation.</p>
<p>But that is what CBS has done. <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/20790620/most-comprehensive-injury-report-ever">They lay out who will be out for how long and for what reason</a>. </p>
<p>It is a pretty interesting view of the basketball situation around the country. Look at the teams that have long lists of players who are injured, or recovering, or just can't play this season. Those are the coaches who are wondering why they get up in the morning. Things certainly haven't gone in the direction they envisioned for the program.</p>
<p>That said, there are a lot of teams that are going to look a lot different after a month of the season or so. Just wait until they are full strength, and see the numbers for those schools change.</p>
<p>It is going to be one interesting year.</p>
https://www.midmajormadness.com/2012/11/2/3593312/cbs-sports-lays-out-injury-situation-across-countryBenjamin Miraski2012-11-01T18:40:33-07:002012-11-01T18:40:33-07:00Kazemi On Fire At Oregon, But Still Ineligible
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<figcaption>Troy Taormina-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>According to ESPN's Andy Katz, Rice transfer Arsalan Kazemi is fitting in well at Oregon. He is still waiting for the NCAA to rule on his waiver request to be eligible this season.</p> <p>When <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/100233/arsalan-kazemi">Arsalan Kazemi</a> left Rice to look for a spot on a roster at a major program, there was a lot of skepticism that the Iranian star would fit in.</p>
<p>Appparently things are going well. <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/66258/3-point-shot-kazemi-fits-well-with-oregon">According to ESPN's Andy Katz</a>, Kazemi has impressed the coaching staff as one of the top players on the floor:</p>
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<p>The Ducks coaching staff has found him to be an elite rebounder, the most physical player on the team, and possessing a high basketball IQ. He has picked up the Oregon system quickly.</p>
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<p>That is great and all, but Kazemi is still trying to get eligible for the season, and it seems a bit far fetched. I am not sure what could have gone into his waiver request that would get him through the NCAA process. </p>
<p>But when it comes to the NCAA, you never can tell what they are going to approve and deny. It could be that playing in Houston was such a hardship that Kazemi will see the floor this season. Guess we will all have to wait and see.</p>
https://www.midmajormadness.com/2012/11/1/3588410/arsalan-kazemi-fitting-in-well-with-oregon-ducksBenjamin Miraski2012-10-31T19:47:43-07:002012-10-31T19:47:43-07:00ESPN's Medcalf Makes His Mid-Major Predictions
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<figcaption>Mark L. Baer-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>If you need a good refresher on all that is happening outside of the big leagues, then Myron Medcalf has assembled one for you at ESPN. If you are looking to be wowed with a few upset picks heading into the year, then you have come to the wrong place.</p> <p>Not everyone focuses on the mid-major ranks like we do, or they pick a few teams to watch and that is it for the season unless someone goes off like Harvard and Murray State did at the beginning of last year.</p>
<p>ESPN, for the sake of completeness I am guessing, had <a href="http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/8572131/breaking-mid-majors-2012-13-college-basketball">Myron Medcalf make his picks across all of the non-major conferences</a> as defined by the World Wide Leader. Basically he picked a winner in every conference we cover except for in Conference USA (you can get a good look at picks <a href="http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/memphis_tops_c_usa_preseason_poll">for CUSA from Ken Pomeroy</a>).</p>
<p>My only problem with the piece is that Medcalf didn't really go out on the limb with any of his picks. Now I am not saying that I would have chosen someone different in any of the leagues. I might have had the exact same set of choices.</p>
<p>But this is the time of year to be bold. We did it with our <a href="http://www.midmajormadness.com/college-basketball-season-preview-2012-2013/2012/10/2/3441874/mid-major-top-20-preview-davidson-wildcats">Davidson to the Final Four/Championship Game comment</a>. We did it with our <a href="http://www.midmajormadness.com/college-basketball-season-preview-2012-2013/2012/10/23/3541716/mid-major-top-20-preview-wichita-state-shockers-mvc">panning of Wichita State</a>, and our <a href="http://www.midmajormadness.com/2012/9/4/3290367/mid-major-top-20-preview-long-beach-state-49ers">doubts about Long Beach State</a>. I am pretty sure that Dr. Geeves is certain South Alabama will find a way to win in the Sun Belt thanks to the <a href="http://www.midmajormadness.com/2012/9/25/3372942/full-time-out-south-alabama-jaguars-rubit-ammons-arrow-carter">enthusiasm of head coach Ron Arrow</a> (even if he didn't write it). </p>
<p>The point is that if you are going to have any fun with college basketball, you have to do something different in the same way that you will pick upsets in March because it brings you joy to go against the grain. </p>
<p>Even with the chalkiness of the selections, Medcalf has some nice sleepers and players to watch buried in the piece. That makes it a good read if you haven't been paying attention and need a quick primer before diving into <a href="http://www.midmajormadness.com/college-basketball-season-preview-2012-2013">our deeper analysis here</a>.</p>
https://www.midmajormadness.com/college-basketball-season-preview-2012-2013/2012/10/31/3583938/espns-myron-medcalf-makes-his-mid-major-picksBenjamin Miraski2012-10-30T10:56:15-07:002012-10-30T10:56:15-07:00Ken Pomeroy Prefaces His 2013 Preseason Rankings
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<figcaption>Can Ken Pomeroy's computer rankings point us toward the Final Four? | Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>Ken Pomeroy, the guru of tempo-free statistics and rankings, released his 2013 preseason computer rankings today. We link to his introduction and let him set the stage for a surprising set of numbers.</p> <p>We <a href="http://www.midmajormadness.com/college-basketball-season-preview-2012-2013/2012/10/30/3576846/pomeroy-rankings-mid-major-ivy-league-missouri-valley-creighton">just finished deconstructing</a> what were the (mid-)major highlights within the <a href="http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/say_hello_to_your_big_ten_overlords">newly released 2013 Ken Pomeroy preseason rankings</a>. As <a href="http://www.midmajormadness.com/college-basketball-season-preview-2012-2013/2012/10/30/3576846/pomeroy-rankings-mid-major-ivy-league-missouri-valley-creighton">we stated at the beginning of that piece</a>, anyone who does college basketball analysis would be unwise to ignore the work that Pomeroy does every season. </p>
<p>His rankings should be considered the gold standard, at least in terms of completeness and stability, for now. Perhaps one day <a href="http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2426">Dan Hanner's system </a>will dethrone Pomeroy -- I have no such<a href="http://www.midmajormadness.com/2012/6/1/3056354/quantifying-team-strength-an-introduction-to-the-mri"> illusions about the MRI</a>, which is good enough for my predictive purposes, but would need some major tweaks to reach this status -- but that day is still in the future with some adjustments still needed.</p>
<p>It is only fitting then that <a href="http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/say_hello_to_your_big_ten_overlords">we link to Pomeroy's own introduction to his rankings</a>. Here he dives into the methodology behind the list, and compares the preseason slate to the AP poll for its accuracy in predicting the future: </p>
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<p>However, if we had 20 more years of data, we'd probably find that there's not much more predictive power in my system as compared to the AP poll. I'd even concede the AP might have a small edge. But I'd say the main benefit of the system is that it's an independent data point that isn't concerned if it gets called out for putting Wisconsin #5. (I personally care, though. Please spare my fragile feelings.)</p>
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<p>We care too Ken. </p>
<p>Pomeroy is set to dive deeper into specific teams on Wednesday, and we can't wait to see if he says anything about the Ivy League, or the relatively strong showing by the mid-major teams.</p>
https://www.midmajormadness.com/2012/10/30/3576974/ken-pomeroy-prefaces-his-2013-preseason-rankingsBenjamin Miraski2012-10-30T06:59:54-07:002012-10-30T06:59:54-07:00Big Apple Buckets Sits Down with Dan Hanner
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<img alt="Has the loss of Zack Rosen doomed Penn in the Ivy League this season?" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/XhRSd7kxlbpduXuUkRTXQ03JFC0=/30x19:1086x723/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/2307221/1112_rosen_white11.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Has the loss of Zack Rosen doomed Penn in the Ivy League this season? | Penn Athletics</figcaption>
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<p>John Templon at <a href="http://nycbuckets.com/2012/10/qa-with-dan-hanner-about-preseason-predictions/">Big Apple Buckets sits down with Dan Hanner</a>, whose computer ratings we reviewed Tuesday morning. The two stat gurus go deeper into several of the mid-major teams that should have our focus over the coming season.</p> <p>This morning we gave <a href="http://www.midmajormadness.com/college-basketball-season-preview-2012-2013/2012/10/30/3575002/mid-majors-score-well-in-tempo-free-computer-ratings">our analysis of the new set of computer rankings</a> that were released by Dan Hanner over at Basketball Prospectus. In general, we agreed with the assessments that Hanner laid out, including the Penn prediction that <a href="http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2426">Hanner called out in his original post</a>.</p>
<p>But FOTS John Templon over at Big Apple Buckets is never one to be satisfied with predictions on their face value. <a href="http://nycbuckets.com/2012/10/qa-with-dan-hanner-about-preseason-predictions/">He sat down with Hanner to get a little more information</a> about what goes into the rankings, and together they parse through some of the mid-major predictions.</p>
<p>A good deal of the article is spent looking at the Northeast Conference (since so much of the league falls right into the BAB wheelhouse). One of the best bits is the analysis on Long Island, everyone's favorite to win a close race despite tough efficiency numbers from last season that could have had some predictors running scared:</p>
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<p><b>BAB: </b>Alright, now let's talk about the NEC, which I think contains some of the most interesting projections. Why is LIU Brooklyn predicted to go 12-6? I know they had a worse KenPom than Robert Morris and Wagner last season, but they return everyone but <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/53355/michael-culpo" class="sbn-auto-link">Michael Culpo</a> and are consensus favorites to win the league title in what should be a tense battle. Here you've got them in a tense battle, but with St. Francis (NY) and Quinnipiac for third.</p>
<p><b>DH: </b>You hit the nail on the head. LIU wasn't just slightly worse than Robert Morris and Wagner last year according to the tempo free stats, they were actually quite a bit worse. And LIU was even worse than Quinnipiac.</p>
<p>If you compare my offensive and defensive prediction to the stats from last year, you will see that LIU is picked to improve on both ends of the court. The model certainly thinks they will be a better team this year. But the model is concerned that last year's pace-inspired weak defense will come back to haunt the team this season.</p>
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<p>Hanner goes on from there with his analysis on the Blackbirds.</p>
<p>As usual, great work turned in by Templon and an interesting look inside the rankings at teams that wouldn't normally get more than a cursory glance by most sites out there.</p>
https://www.midmajormadness.com/2012/10/30/3575666/big-apple-buckets-goes-deeper-with-dan-hanner-on-computer-projectionsBenjamin Miraski